Following the addition of Boris Johnson as the Exit camps heavy weight hitter the financial markets finally started taking the possibility of a “Brexit” seriously, with credit agencies putting the odds up from 10-20% to 30-40%. This resulted in a fall of the pound against the dollar of 1.7% at one point, to finish at 1.4%. This is the lowest level since 2009.
On top of this the likelihood of a UK interest rate hike looks even less likely, so in total the Pound has fallen 17% over the past 18 months.
A vote to stay would increase the chances of a rate increase and confidence, so would result in a stronger pound, a vote to leave would result in a weaker pound. For how long no one can say.